This comment on our post Hunger yesterday is from an expert in the field and worth a separate blog.

"You note that it is "surprising" that 40% of the hungry are in India and China - two dynamic economies. 

 

It is not at all surprising because that is where many people are and those countries are still relatively poor.

 

I'm only surprised it is only 40%.

 

There is a huge link between hunger and poverty, and in spite of the wonderful economic progress in those two economies, both are still two very poor countries. 

 

If you turn around the percentage, you see that the highest rate of hunger is in Africa. 

 

No surprise there, but the number of people is relatively small because the populations are small.
 
 

The issues of food security and food self-sufficiency are not well enough understood, and probably many people confuse or equate the two. 

 

Obviously, it would be very risky for large nations such as India or China, with huge food needs, to bet on permanent food surpluses in the world, and these being available at reasonable prices, always and forever. 

 

So, when a nation has agricultural resources that are inefficient or under-utilized, the first thing it needs to do is fix that problem before looking outside of its own borders.

 

That is where agricultural research has been probably one of the most successful human endeavours over the past 40 years. 

 

And yes, I am talking about the green revolution. 

 

For a really chilling thought experiment, try to imagine the world post-1960 had the green revolution not occurred.  The numbers are staggering - not only of the lives saved, but the effect on the environment. 

 

There would be much less bio-diversity left (forests, especially) than at present had agriculture been forced to expand into less efficient production areas. 

 

Crop yields are what matter, regardless of what many environmentalists and other well-meaning folks believe.  This is why, eventually, people are just going to have to get over the fear of genetically-modified food. 

 

It's coming, and it will be needed. 

 

Unfortunately perhaps, at least for the moment, the largest investors and researchers in this area are large food-industry giants such as Monsanto, so there is an image and perception problem there.

 

Shifting demand patterns are also responsible for grain shortages. 

 

Paradoxically, when countries such as India and China develop, demand for meat rises, and this diverts a lot of grain that heretofore would have been eaten by humans. 

 

But it is hard to argue that this is wrong - it is just a fact and must be part of the research and development equation for the future."

Thank you very much to Gord of Victoria.