Smart Picks -- Economic Futures, 2 Anniversaries, Deutschland Uber Alles, Arctic Suez

What role should the state play in creating the conditions for economic growth? A question of excellent futures surely. A report commissioned by the Conservative Party headed by David Cameron is framed by the expectation that the 'government is responsible for change'. Maybe that's the problem.

March 9, 2009 the Great Recession bottom, March 10, 2000 the peak of the dotcom bubble. What have we learned from these two anniversaries?

The problems with the Eurozone are in large measure a function of the over savings-investment-export economic structure of Germany. Iceland sees the melting Arctic and the resulting transportation routes as turning the area in its territory into an Icelandic Suez. Let the geo-strategic fun continue.

Sir James Dyson, he of the most excellent vacuum cleaner, wrote a report commissioned by the Conservative Party (UK) entitled Ingenious Britain designed to promote the rebuilding of manufacturing and technology.

The report makes five recommendations that while not particularly earth shattering at least help frame an excellent future for this sector of the British economy.

The report's recommendations are cultural (make studying and doing science cool), educational (make teaching science a priority), commercial step one-linking the technology to the entrepreneur (make the link between best in class universities and start up companies more explicit), commercial step two-start ups (make financing easier), and commercial step three-beyond start ups (make financing easier).

What I found interesting about the thrust of the report was the central role of the state. However you want to slice it, in a world where the state has license to babysit us, collect and spend more than 50% of the Gross National Product, imagining an excellent future for the economy -- or at least part of the economy -- requires the right positioning of the state.

The design millionaire, whose report was commissioned by the Conservative Party, has called for an overhaul of the start-up funding, a re-routing of the research and development (R&D) tax credits and fresh funding for science and technology in education. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/7400742/Sir-James-Dyson-plan-to-fill-UKs-engineering-vacuum.html

Dyson's report comes out at a time when the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom is sharpening its spending cut knife. Don't cut science funding if you want an excellent future.

When William Waldegrave cleared his desk as Chief Secretary to the Treasury in 1997, he left a short note for his successor. As the gatekeeper to pots of taxpayers’ gold, he advised, the new man would be besieged by special interests arguing that this cut or that was unconscionable. Only two budgets, however, really deserved such protection. One was the intelligence services. The other was science.  http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article7054581.ece#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=2270657

Fears that the US will cancel NAFTA and turn the Great Recession into something worse.

 
This book review is an eloquent defence of commercial trade because it makes us richer as human beings (the by product is wealth).
 
On the ceiling of the Reading Room of the Library of Congress in Washington is painted an allegory called Human Understanding. Eight "pale, powdery, pre-Raphaelite" women personify the "Endeavours of Civilization". They include History, Science, Religion and Law. But to the author, one strikes a jarring note. It is Commerce. According to Tristram Riley-Smith, a European's "cultural and moral compass" is likely to spin at this point: "What has trade to do with Human Understanding"?  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/books/bookreviews/7399582/A-lesson-in-liberty-from-the-land-of-the-free.html
Yesterday was the first year anniversary of the stock market bottom of the Great Recession. A warning that more roller coaster capitalism is guaranteed because of the extraordinary measures that have been taken to keep things as they were, when in fact they never can be again.
 
A year ago yesterday, the world almost ended. The stock market was in free fall, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average bottoming out at 6547, down from its Oct. 9, 2007 peak of 14164. Financials were in a death spiral and there was even talk of nationalization. Citigroup hit $1.05, GE traded at $7.41 and golden Goldman Sachs was given away at $73.95. A bear market extraordinaire. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704784904575111652626885876.html?mod=WSJ_newsreel_opinion
 
 
 
Remembering those pet.com and portfoliodirect.com days. Ten years ago day the NASDAQ peaked.
 
The excesses of the late 1990s technology boom created paper millionaires based on unlikely ideas. http://www.ft.com/dotcomboom
 
Bubble bursting from the short view.
 
Still living the consequences of the Nasdaq burst after all these years   http://www.ft.com/cms/bfba2c48-5588-11dc-b971-0000779fd2ac.html
Martin Wolf reminds us that Europeans can't all be Germans unless the Germans become more European.
 
Ever since the federal republic was founded, Germany has had two over-riding strategic objectives: sound money and European integration. These were the twin imperatives learned from the calamities of the early 20th century. The euro embodies these aims. Now they conflict with each other. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d23c785e-2bb3-11df-a5c7-00144feabdc0.html
Iceland plays its geostrategic card. If you want us to be part of Europe play easy with the financial squeeze or else we might do an Arctic deal with, say China. Not sure they have any choice but it might be a way to placate angry Brits that lost money in the Icelandic ponzi savings scheme. Oh politics is dirty.
 
Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson's white-washed presidential residence sits on a barren peninsula with sweeping views across the low-rise Icelandic capital and volcanic mountains beyond. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/76ca458c-2be5-11df-8033-00144feabdc0.html
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