Commentary on making good forecasts (‘judgmental accuracy’) or why foxes are better than hedgehogs, debt chat, and why stock markets can rally when Greece exits.

This presentation is worth the full hour.

foratv – Why Foxes are Better Forecasters Than Hedgehogs

Related.

Challenge Network -- The Fox and the Hedgehog: cognitive styles in decision-taking

Isaiah Berlin once drew on European folk tales for the metaphor of the fox and the hedgehog.

 

Hedgehogs have just one, powerful response to a threat: they roll themselves into a ball, presenting spikes to predators. They 'know just one big thing'.

 

Foxes, by contrast, have no single response to challenges, for they 'know many little things'. They react to challenge by drawing on a pattern of general, pragmatic understanding, often making mistakes but seldom committing themselves to a potentially catastrophic grand strategy.

The debt crisis examined. (ed’s note – start 12.00)

cfa -- World Debt Crisis: Endgame Scenarios and What They Could Mean for Investors
John D. Rogers, Anatole Kaletsky, Barry L. Ritholtz, David Rosenberg and John Mauldin discuss the coming of the end of the debt crisis.

Go long?

Telegraph -- Global banks see market rally on Greek exit
Major global banks are advising clients to prepare for a stock market rally and a resurgence of the euro if Greece is forced out of monetary union, betting that world authorites will flood the international system with liquidity.