Preparation for my talk 'The Economies of China and Japan - Lessons for Canada' on 22 September in Victoria http://www.harboursiderotary.org/  has led me to dig down a little more on the Chinese side of the 'China will take over the US by 2030' thesis. There are fault lines political and economic that bear thinking about.

More commentary on Stephen Hawking's new book The Grand Design and his conclusion that no designer was required. The sad scenes of Roma families being deported from France, Gordon Brown's 'that racist women' moment, and Arizona's nasty anti-Hispanic immigration law has raised the age old question about the role of immigration and immigrants. The Washington Post explores Five Myths about US exports. Two interesting articles about how human traffic is ruining iconic tourist sites.

And in Japan piles of whale meat culled from the country's whaling 'scientific experiments' that eco-conscious Japanese consumers won't buy are actually in school lunches. Happi Lunch.

There are three important fault lines that boosters of the China story need to consider. First, the regional tensions that are ethnic and economic. Second, the structural imbalances in an economy which is partly market driven and partly state controlled. Third, the increasing frustration of foreign companies in China with local authorities.

Regional divide.

The five-star hotels are full, bulldozers are making quick work of dreary slums and billboards for “French-style villas” call out to the nouveau riche.  http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/05/world/asia/05uighur.html?_r=3&ref=global-home

Economic imbalance.

Despite its extraordinary growth performance during the past decades, China’s structural risks have also increased significantly.  Premier Wen and other senior leaders have repeatedly emphasised that the existing growth pattern is unstable, unbalanced and unsustainable. http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2010/09/03/rebalancing-chinas-economic-structure/

Foreign companies having second thoughts.

Foreign companies are losing market share in China across a broad range of industries because of discriminatory treatment by the government and regulators, according to the European Chamber of Commerce in China. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ae64093e-b677-11df-86ca-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss

A nice video explanation of Stephen Hawking's thesis.

Physics is enough http://www.atheistmedia.com/2010/09/stephen-hawking-physics-is-enough.html

Thinking about the universe. Let's hope gravity doesn't win.

For thousands of years, people have wondered about the universe.  —Stephen Hawking  http://www.stephenjaygould.org/ctrl/archive/hawking_universe.html

The scientific debate about the validity of Hawking's thesis.

In The Grand Design, Stephen Hawking gives his perspectives on physical reality and expectations for future fundamental physics, ably assisted by the fine science writer Leonard Mlodinow.  http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/bdf3ae28-b6e9-11df-b3dd-00144feabdc0.html

The religious debate.

Cosmologists are agreed that the universe began with a big bang 13.7 billion years ago. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/belief/2010/sep/04/stephen-hawking-big-bang-gap

Stephen Hawking the human being. A fascinating interview by a Israeli interviewer Yair Lapid whose questions allow a private side of Hawking to be revealed that we rarely see and probably can't imagine.

Hawking on Yair Lapid  http://www.bing.com/videos/?FORM=MFEVID&publ=D168C6E2-90C6-47F4-AABE-21582D3A32E1&crea=STND_MFEVID_core_HuffPoQ1FY2011_CustomVidLink_1x1&q=stephen+hawking&docid=165671863728&FORM=HUFPST#

European fertility rates are among the lowest in the world. There are many people that want to come to Europe. Many of them come from countries where Islam is the dominant religion. Should it matter?

For the record my view is that immigration is a key strategic advantage for Canada and a vital building block for an excellent future.

This may or may not be the case for other countries but Canada has some important immigration advantages.

First, a cultural predisposition to embrace difference because of the historical rapprochement between English and French Canada. Some would argue this is also because of the country's aboriginal heritage.

Second, a social economy that is founded on the rule of law and best in class education outcomes.

Third, a combination of skills and family based immigration strategies that make the likelihood of successful immigration outcomes higher not lower.

As far as the challenge of cultural integration is concerned something that has bedeviled Germany and France, I would argue that the key is the social infrastructure that supports the first-born generation of immigrant children so their education, health, community and economic outcomes continue to rise.

So that when these children taste liberty and the possibility of unbridled success whatever ancient ideologies their parents cling to will peel away into insignificance.

Which European politician said in July that his country was “suffering from 50 years of lax immigration rules that have led to a failure of integration”?  http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dab74570-b788-11df-8ef6-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss

Related.

Charlie Rose on the Arizona immigration law http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11143

 

Middle Eastern maids http://www.economist.com/node/16953469

Below in Pdf format is a great data table of international migration. Data speaks volumes.

This discussion about exports is useful to help frame a long time debate in the United States echoes of which we hear in many countries particularly those with trade deficits. Of note, as the US economy adjusts to less shopping, less cheap finance, and smaller homes its imports will adjust accordingly.

Since January, when he announced his goal of doubling U.S. exports within five years, President Obama has argued that increasing exports is key to lifting our economy out of the doldrums.  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/03/AR2010090302208.html?wprss=rss_opinions

Can fragile iconic buildings handle our collective interest?

Art custodians expressed alarm over the state of the exquisite paintings which adorn the chapel, in the heart of the Vatican city state, following the first cleaning operation for four years.  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/vaticancityandholysee/7980332/Sweat-and-breath-damaging-Sistine-Chapels-frescoes.html

 

Is that Mount Fuji or a mountain of trash?

In Japan, the authorities might introduce a charge to climb Mount Fuji, to limit the ever-increasing numbers flocking to its supposedly sacred summit, leaving mountains of litter in their wake.  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/7981058/We-destroy-the-very-sights-we-cherish.html

 

And whale meat for Japanese school lunches. Hard actually to make this stuff up.

Whale meat has been slowly put back on school lunch menus since around 2005, according to a recent survey released Saturday, as the meat is being made available at low prices in a bid to expand consumption. http://search.japantimes.co.jp/rss/nn20100905a3.html

Related.

The Cove  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4KRD8e20fBo