Smart Links 21 May 2012
Commentary on making good forecasts (‘judgmental accuracy’) or why foxes are better than hedgehogs, debt chat, and why stock markets can rally when Greece exits.
This presentation is worth the full hour.
Isaiah Berlin once drew on European folk tales for the metaphor of the fox and the hedgehog.
Hedgehogs have just one, powerful response to a threat: they roll themselves into a ball, presenting spikes to predators. They 'know just one big thing'.
Foxes, by contrast, have no single response to challenges, for they 'know many little things'. They react to challenge by drawing on a pattern of general, pragmatic understanding, often making mistakes but seldom committing themselves to a potentially catastrophic grand strategy.
The debt crisis examined. (ed’s note – start 12.00)
cfa -- World Debt Crisis: Endgame Scenarios and What They Could Mean for Investors
John D. Rogers, Anatole Kaletsky, Barry L. Ritholtz, David Rosenberg and John Mauldin discuss the coming of the end of the debt crisis.
Telegraph -- Global banks see market rally on Greek exit
Major global banks are advising clients to prepare for a stock market rally and a resurgence of the euro if Greece is forced out of monetary union, betting that world authorites will flood the international system with liquidity.
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Ultimately, the most successful societies find the balance between the twin virtues of inequality of outcomes and equality of opportunity.
The new politics must marry the twin virtues of unequal outcomes and equality of opportunity.
When too few get too much everybody loses.
Feminism is about women living their lives on their own terms, marshaling the resources of the society to make that possible, and men embracing this as vital to a successful society and their own liberation.
Can it be that striving for equality of opportunity however imperfect the process not only benefits the individual but also creates benefits for the society that are unintended but wonderful?
Economics must be a 'moral enterprise' as much as politics claims to be. Economic outcomes need to be framed in terms of right and wrong not just efficiency if only because these often align in surprising ways that are good for society and the economy.
My vision of Canada is that any Canadian child from a family of limited circumstance can expect to have a chance at lifetime of unlimited opportunities.
Tax policy should be founded on the principle of generating steady tax revenues sufficient to maximise environmentally sustainable economic growth in order to fund fair government.
Public policy should be designed to decrease inequality before the law and increase equality of opportunity.
Capitalism is not the problem; the problem is what we do with capitalism.
Content is always more difficult to argue than conspiracy.
Let the state regulate and the market operate (most things).
Welfare strategies are best designed as a hand up, not as a hand out.
Political debate should not be fact free fighting.
Explanation lasts longer than eloquence.
Always favour empowerment over dependency.
The most enduring public figures are embraced for the causes they fought for and not the concept of themselves they hoped others would remember them by.
Find your voice and don't be the echo of somebody else.
It is possible to operate on two different levels: the practical, cautious and conservative; and the realm of ideas, open, free, and radical.